JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300223

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Activity Number: 66
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #300223
Title: The Risks and Benefits of Smallpox and Vaccination: Modeling the Impacts on Public Health
Author(s): Steven A. Anderson*+
Companies: U.S. Food and Drug Administration
Address: 1401 Rockville Pike, HFM-210, Rockville, MD, 20852,
Keywords: public health ; infectious diseases ; smallpox ; vaccine ; modeling
Abstract:

Smallpox was eradicated in the 1970s. However, use of the agent as a bioterrorism weapon, while considered remote, is possible. Fortunately, an effective vaccine exists that is capable of preventing the spread of the disease, should it re-emerge. Large scale or mass vaccination campaigns of the entire U.S. population may pose particular challenges to public health. To explore some of these challenges we use mathematical models to explore various "what if" scenarios to determine the impact of vaccination and other interventions. The models can be further used to identify the most effective measures that optimize benefits while reducing the risks associated with vaccination. The structure of the models, various scenarios and their application in evaluating optimal interventions will be discussed.

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Revised March 2004