The Will Rogers Phenomenon: What is it and how did it get its name?

• Activity Number: 401
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 15, 2002 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Teaching of Statistics in the Health Sciences*
• Author(s): Harry Norton*+ and George Divine
• Affiliation(s): Carolinas Medical Center and Henry Ford Health System
• Keywords: Will Rogers phenomenon ; teaching ; cancer staging

Abstract

Newly diagnosed cancer patients are classified by stage. Patients with more advanced disease and worse prognosis are assigned to a higher stage. A paradoxical situation can occur over time, where the overall death rate from a cancer may remain constant, but the death rate for every stage can go down. This is due to "stage migration," where patients at a later time are assigned to a higher stage than they would have at an earlier time point--due to better assessment from improved medical technology to detect cancer. We will discuss how this interesting phenomenon can be taught to medical students or undergraduates, including the use of a visual presentation to explain this concept. We will introduce the concept of staging in cancer patients, remind the audience of Will Rogers (the famous American Indian/cowboy/actor/ raconteur), and describe how this statistical concept came to be named after him. We will present two other examples, not from biology, where a version of the paradox can occur.