JSM 2016 Online Program

Sessions Were Renumbered as of May 19.

Legend:
CC-W = McCormick Place Convention Center, West Building,   CC-N = McCormick Place Convention Center, North Building
H = Hilton Chicago,   UC= Conference Chicago at University Center
* = applied session       ! = JSM meeting theme

Activity Details

71	Sun, 7/31/2016, 4:00 PM - 5:50 PM	CC-W175b
Environmental Extremes — Contributed Papers
Section on Statistics and the Environment , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Whitney Huang, Purdue University
4:05 PM	Bivariate Quantile-Based Calibration of Numerical Model Outputs with Application to Climate Projections — Brooke Alhanti, Emory University ; Howard Chang, Emory University
4:20 PM	Detecting Change Points in Climatic Data Using Extreme Values — Andrew Bartlett, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville
4:35 PM	Modeling the Frequency and Magnitude of Extreme Events — Piyas Chakraborty, Purdue University ; Hao Zhang, Purdue University
4:50 PM	Quantifying Waves of Extreme Weather — Joshua French, University of Colorado Denver ; Piotr Kokoszka, Colorado State University ; Stilian Stoev, University of Michigan
5:05 PM	Bayesian Clustering and Dimension Reduction in Multivariate Extremes — Sabrina Vettori, KAUST ; Raphaël Huser, KAUST ; Marc Genton, KAUST
5:20 PM	Censored Local Likelihood Inference for Modeling Nonstationarity in Spatial Extremes — Daniela Castro, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology ; Raphaël Huser, KAUST
5:35 PM	Bayesian Modeling of Days in Risk Due to Concentration of PM10 in Kuwait — Fahimah Alawadhi, Kuwait University

130	Mon, 8/1/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W184d
Statistical Methods for Spatial Epidemiology — Contributed Papers
Section on Statistics in Epidemiology , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Nicholas Beyler, Mathematica Policy Research
8:35 AM	Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Multi-Pathogen Infectious Diseases Using Data from Multiple Sources — Hunter Merrill, University of Florida ; Xueying Tang, University of Florida ; Yang Yang, University of Florida ; Nikolay Bliznyuk, University of Florida
8:50 AM	Continuous Surface Modeling for Space-Time Infectious Disease Count Data — Katherine Wilson, University of Washington ; Jonathan Wakefield, University of Washington
9:05 AM	Spatial Model for Risk Prediction and Subnational Prioritization to Aid Poliovirus Eradication in Pakistan — Laina Mercer, Institute for Disease Modeling ; Steve Kroiss, Institute for Disease Modeling ; Hil Lyons, Institute for Disease Modeling ; Guillaume Chabot-Couture, Institute for Disease Modeling
9:20 AM	Spatial Variability in the Persistence of PCV-Targeted Pneumococcal Serotypes Among Adults — Joshua Warren, Yale University ; S. Cassandra Pingali, Yale University ; Daniel Weinberger, Yale University
9:35 AM	Generalized Linear Mixed Model to Predict a Spatially Correlated Poisson Variable in the Presence of an Auxiliary Variable, with an Application to the West Nile Virus — Lynette Smith, University of Nebraska Medical Center ; David B. Marx, University of Nebraska - Lincoln
9:50 AM	Novel Application of a Weighted Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model in Modeling Count Data from a Complex Survey — Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina ; Lin Dai, Medical University of South Carolina
10:05 AM	High-Dimensional Analysis of Spatial Count Data: A Penalized Estimating Equation Approach — Rejaul Karim, Michigan State University ; Tapabrata Maiti, Michigan State University

151 * !	Mon, 8/1/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W183c
Benefit-Risk Evaluation in Medicine — Invited Papers
Section on Medical Devices and Diagnostics , International Chinese Statistical Association , Committee on Applied Statisticians , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Martin Ho, FDA/CDRH
Chair(s): Norberto Pantoja-Galicia, FDA/CDRH
10:35 AM	An Overview of Structured Benefit-Risk Analysis — Qi Jiang, Amgen ; Weili He, Merck
11:00 AM	Bayesian Benefit Risk Assessments for Medical Products — Telba Irony, FDA
11:25 AM	Recent Developments in Benefit-Risk Evaluation for Diagnostic Tests — Gene Pennello, FDA/CDRH/OSB/DBS ; Norberto Pantoja-Galicia, FDA/CDRH ; Scott Evans, Harvard
11:50 AM	Discussant: Scott Evans, Harvard
12:10 PM	Floor Discussion

168	Mon, 8/1/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W176c
Credibility Analysis, Co-presented by the Society of Actuaries — Topic Contributed Panel
Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): R. Dale Hall, Society of Actuaries
Chair(s): Michael Pennell, The Ohio State University
10:35 AM	Credibility Analysis: Theory, Practice, and Evolution
Panelists:	Dale Hall, Society of Actuaries Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Illinois State University Olivier Le Courtois, EM Lyon Peng Shi, University of Wisconsin - Madison Liang Hong, Robert Morris University
12:15 PM	Floor Discussion

175	Mon, 8/1/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W185a
Statistical Methods for Environmental Epidemiology — Contributed Papers
Section on Statistics in Epidemiology , Section on Risk Analysis , Statistics Without Borders
Chair(s): Min Chen, ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences
10:35 AM	Application of Principal Components Analysis to Blood Metal Exposures in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) Data — Po-Yung Cheng, CDC ; Mary Mortensen, CDC/NCEH ; Robert Jones, CDC/NCEH ; Kathleen Caldwell, CDC/NCEH
10:50 AM	Predictive Geocoding — Jie Fan, University of Miami ; J. Sunil Rao, University of Miami
11:05 AM	Optimal Sampling Designs of Two-Compartment Nonlinear Regression Models — Noa Molshatzki, University of Southern California ; Sandrah P. Eckel, University of Southern California
11:20 AM	A Latent Variable Model with Scaled Nonlinear Effects for Multiple Outcomes — Zhenzhen Zhang, University of Michigan ; Brisa N. Sanchez, University of Michigan
11:35 AM	Survival Analysis with Measurement Error in a Cumulative Exposure Variable: Radon Progeny in Relation to Lung Cancer Mortality — Polyna Khudyakov, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health ; Jonathan Samet, University of Southern California ; Charles Wiggins, University of New Mexico ; Xiaomei Liao, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health ; Angela Meisner, New Mexico Tumor Registry ; Donna Spiegelman, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
11:50 AM	A Two-Stage Approach to Analysis of Health Effects of Environmental Chemical Mixtures: Informed Sparse Principal Component Analysis Followed by Segmented Regression — Roman Jandarov, University of Cincinnati ; Susan Pinney, University of Cincinnati ; Liang Niu, University of Cincinnati
12:05 PM	Floor Discussion

184	Mon, 8/1/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W179b
Bayesian Modeling in Life Sciences and Medicine I — Contributed Papers
Section on Bayesian Statistical Science , Biopharmaceutical Section , International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Andrew Womack, Indiana University
10:35 AM	A Spatio-Temporal Model for Protein Structure Evolution and Alignment — Gary Larson, Duke University ; Scott Schmidler, Duke University
10:50 AM	Nonparametric Survival Analysis Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) — Rodney Sparapani, Medical College of Wisconsin ; Brent Logan, Medical College of Wisconsin ; Robert McCulloch, The University of Chicago ; Purushottam Laud, Medical College of Wisconsin
11:05 AM	Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Precision Medicine — Brent Logan, Medical College of Wisconsin ; Rodney Sparapani, Medical College of Wisconsin ; Robert McCulloch, The University of Chicago ; Purushottam Laud, Medical College of Wisconsin
11:20 AM	Robust Assessment of Trial Success Based on Co-Primary Endpoints by Bayesian and Bootstrapping Approaches with Discounting Option — Zongjun Zhang, Eli Lilly and Company ; Fanni Natanegara, Eli Lilly and Company ; Karen Price, Eli Lilly and Company
11:35 AM	Profiling Hospitals Based on Degree of Aggressiveness in Treating Patients with Advanced Cancer — Tianyi Cai, Harvard ; Sherri Rose, Harvard Medical School ; Deborah Schrag, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute ; Francesca Dominici, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
11:50 AM	Bayesian Analysis of Quantal Bioassay Experiments Incorporating Historical Controls via Bayes Factors — Luis Leon Novelo, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston ; Andrew Womack, Indiana University ; Hongxiao Zhu, Virginia Tech ; Xiaowei Wu, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
12:05 PM	A Bayesian High-Dimensional Couple-Based Latent Risk Model with an Application to Infertility — Zhen Chen, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development ; Beom Seuk Hwang, Chung-Ang University ; Germaine M. Buck Louis, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development ; Paul Albert, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

215	Mon, 8/1/2016, 12:30 PM - 1:50 PM	CC-W375a
Section on Risk Analysis P.M. Roundtable Discussion (Added Fee) — Roundtables PM Roundtable Discussion
Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Yishi Wang, The University of North Carolina at Wilmington
ML26:	Statistical Precursors to the 'New' Predictive Analytics — Stanley Sclove, University of Illinois at Chicago

244 *	Mon, 8/1/2016, 2:00 PM - 3:50 PM	CC-W175b
Data Fusion for Environmental Applications — Contributed Papers
Section on Statistics and the Environment , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Karen Ryberg, U.S. Geological Survey
2:05 PM	Spatio-temporal modeling for regional climate model comparison: application on perennial bioenergy crop impacts — Meng Wang, Arizona State University ; Yiannis Kamarianakis, Arizona State University ; Alex Mahalov, Arizona State University ; Melissa Wagner, Arizona State University ; Matei Georgescu, Arizona State University ; Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela ; Mohamed Moustaoui, Arizona State University
2:20 PM	Spatial Data Fusion for Large Non-Gaussian Remote Sensing Data Sets — Hongxiang Shi, University of Cincinnati ; Emily Lei Kang, University of Cincinnati
2:35 PM	Downscaling of Climate Model Projections of Temperature and Related Uncertainty Quantification — Ernst Linder, University of New Hampshire ; Yiming Liu, University of New Hampshire ; Meng Zhao, University of New Hampshire
2:50 PM	Tales of Five Chinese Cities: PM2.5 Data Reliability and Compatibility in Air Quality Assessment — Xuan Liang, Peking University ; Shuo Li, Peking University ; Shuyi Zhang, Peking University ; Hui Huang, Peking University ; Song Xi Chen, Peking University/Iowa State University
3:05 PM	Stochastic Simulation of Predictive Space-Time Scenarios of Wind Speed Using Observations and Physical Models — Julie Bessac, Argonne National Lab ; Emil Mihai Constantinescu, Argonne National Lab ; Mihai Anitescu, Argonne National Lab
3:20 PM	Evaluating Climate Models — Eric Gilleland, National Center for Atmospheric Research ; Barbara G. Brown, National Center for Atmospheric Research ; Caspar Ammann, National Center for Atmospheric Research ; William Gutowski, Iowa State University ; Tressa Fowler, National Center for Atmospheric Research ; John Halley Gotway, National Center for Atmospheric Research
3:35 PM	Estimating Rate of Change of Carbon Dioxide Emission Using Functional Approach — Ram Kafle, Sam Houston State University ; Netra Khanal, University of Tampa ; Chris P. Tsokos, University of South Florida

284 * !	Tue, 8/2/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W190a
Statistical Modeling for Climate Risk Assessment at the Interface of Climate Change and Insurance — Invited Papers
SSC , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Yulia R. Gel, The University of Texas at Dallas, Vyacheslav Lyubchich, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Chair(s): Yulia R. Gel, The University of Texas at Dallas
8:35 AM	Developing an Index-Based Methodology to Forecast the Integrated Risk of Extreme Weather to Agricultural Production Systems — Nathaniel Kenneth Newlands, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
9:05 AM	U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Data Sources, Methods, Biases, and Uncertainty — Adam B. Smith, NOAA/NCEI
9:35 AM	The Effect of Climate Change on House Insurance: Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Flood-Related Damages and Claims — Yulia R. Gel, The University of Texas at Dallas ; Vyacheslav Lyubchich, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
10:05 AM	Floor Discussion

287 * !	Tue, 8/2/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W185d
Machine Learning Methods for 21st-Century Toxicological Risk Assessment — Invited Papers
Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Matthew Wheeler, CDC/NIOSH
Chair(s): Edsel Aldea Pena, University of South Carolina
8:55 AM	Network Analysis--Based Algorithm Nebula for Risk Evaluation of Chemicals — Huixiao Hong, FDA
9:15 AM	Predicting Chemical Dose-Response Toxicity Through Chemical Structure Activity Relationships — Matthew Wheeler, CDC/NIOSH
9:35 AM	Integrative Analysis of High-Throughput Toxicity Screening Data — Eric F. Lock, University of Minnesota
9:55 AM	Discussant: A. John Bailer, Miami University
10:15 AM	Floor Discussion

289 * !	Tue, 8/2/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W179a
Environmental and Health Effects of Air Pollution in a Changing Climate — Invited Papers
Section on Statistics and the Environment , Royal Statistical Society , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Elizabeth Mannshardt, EPA
Chair(s): Kimberly Kaufeld
8:35 AM	Statistical Methods for Projecting Future Ambient Air Quality Under a Changing Climate — Howard Chang, Emory University ; Brooke Alhanti, Emory University ; Stefanie E Sarnat, Emory University ; Xinyi Zhao, Emory University
8:55 AM	Implication of Nonlinear Air Pollutant Concentrations: Response Functions in Risk Assessment — Ana G. Rappold, EPA ; James Crooks, National Jewish Health
9:15 AM	Estimating Pathways and Health Benefits in Air Pollution Interventions — Roger Peng, The Johns Hopkins University
9:35 AM	A Dynamic Spatial Factor Model for Speciated Pollutants — Montse Fuentes, North Carolina State University ; Maria Terres, Climate Corporation
9:55 AM	Discussant: Elizabeth Mannshardt, EPA
10:15 AM	Floor Discussion

342 * !	Tue, 8/2/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W185d
Algorithms for Detecting Defense and Intelligence Threats — Topic Contributed Papers
Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Nicole Mendoza, University of California at Santa Cruz
Chair(s): Abel Rodriguez, University of California at Santa Cruz
10:35 AM	Bayesian Spatial Model Selection Using Mixtures of G-Priors and Markov Random Field Priors for Identifying Gas Plumes in Hyperspectral Data — Nicole Mendoza, University of California at Santa Cruz ; Abel Rodriguez, University of California at Santa Cruz
10:55 AM	Hyperspectral Video Analysis Using Graph-Clustering Methods — Zhaoyi Meng
11:15 AM	Quantifying Quality and Uncertainty in Forensic Pattern Matching — Lucas Mentch, North Carolina State University ; Duy Thai, Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute
11:35 AM	Information Criteria Approximations to the Value of Evidence for Forensic Identification of Source Problems — Danica Ommen, South Dakota State University ; Christopher Saunders, MITRE/South Dakota State University
11:55 AM	A Kernel-Based Method for the Forensic Inference of the Source of Small Particles Characterized Using Compositional Data — Douglas Armstrong, San Diego State University ; Cedric Neumann, San Diego State University ; Christopher Saunders, MITRE/South Dakota State University ; David Stoney, Stoney Forensic
12:15 PM	Floor Discussion

363 *	Tue, 8/2/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W191
Statistical Methods with Applications in Pharmacology, Toxicology, and Pharmacovigilance — Contributed Papers
Biopharmaceutical Section , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): John A. Wass, Quantum Cat Consultants
10:35 AM	On the Perils and Pitfalls of PRR Analysis as Applied to Social Media Safety Surveillance — Jeffery Painter, GlaxoSmithKline
10:50 AM	Robust Ridge Regression Estimators for Nonlinear Models with Applications to High-Throughput Screening Assay Data — Changwon Lim
11:05 AM	The Estimation of Absolute IC50 and Its 95% Confidence Interval — Qin Liu, The Wistar Institute ; Xiangfan Yin, The Wistar Institute ; Quentin McAfee, University of Pennsylvania ; Ravi Amaravadi, University of Pennsylvania ; Jeffery Winkler, University of Pennsylvania ; Meenhard Herlyn, The Wistar Institute
11:20 AM	Alternatives to Nonproportional Hazards — Ramin Arani, AstraZeneca ; Yifan Huang , AstraZeneca ; Andrew Stone, AstraZeneca
11:35 AM	An Exposition to Integrated System Modeling of Patients' Safety Risk — D. Purkayastha ; Sadhvi Khanna, Novartis
11:50 AM	Performance Improvement of Parameter Estimation by Two-Step Analysis Incorporating Generalized Log-Rank Statistics — Junji Moriya, Kyowa Kirin Pharmaceutical Development ; June Li, Kyowa Kirin Pharmaceutical Development
12:05 PM	Evaluating In Vivo-In Vitro Correlation Using a Bayesian Approach — Junshan Qiu, FDA ; Marilyn Martinez, FDA ; Ram Tiwari, FDA/CDER/OT/OB

423 * !	Tue, 8/2/2016, 2:00 PM - 3:50 PM	CC-W187b
Bayesian Methods for Complex Spatial Data — Topic Contributed Papers
Section on Bayesian Statistical Science , International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Candace Berrett, Brigham Young University
Chair(s): Candace Berrett, Brigham Young University
2:05 PM	Urban Heat Risk Mapping of Houston, Texas, Using Multiple Point Patterns — Jacob Mortensen, Brigham Young University ; Matthew J. Heaton, Brigham Young University ; Olga Wilhelmi, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2:25 PM	Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for CO2 Retrieval — Jenny Brynjarsdottir, Case Western Reserve University ; Jonathan Hobbs, Jet Propulsion Laboratory ; Amy Braverman, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
2:45 PM	Spatial-Temporal Pareto Modeling of Extreme Value Data — Gabriel Huerta, University of New Mexico ; Luis Enrique Nieto Barajas, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
3:05 PM	Point Pattern Analysis of Geological Surface Features on Io — E. Neeley Tass, Brigham Young University ; Jani Radebaugh, Brigham Young University
3:45 PM	Floor Discussion

426 *	Tue, 8/2/2016, 2:00 PM - 3:50 PM	CC-W177
Financial Risk Analysis — Contributed Papers
Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Mary Louie, Verisk Analytics
2:05 PM	Alternative Methods to Estimate Major Banks' Residential and Commercial Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates for CCAR (Stress Testing) 'Baseline' Scenario — Vadim Melnitchouk, Metropolitan State University ; Andrey Vashurin, University of Telecommunications
2:20 PM	Trading Strategy Using Stock Moves Prediction and Sentiment Analysis — Brahim Brahim, Big Data Visualizations Inc. ; Sun Makosso-Kallyth, McMaster University
2:35 PM	A Two-Dimensional Poisson Autoregression with Application to Association Study of Two Financial Markets — Ke Wang ; Haipeng Xing, SUNY Stony Brook
2:50 PM	Sparse Bayesian Graphical Vector Autoregression For Risk Analysis — Daniel Felix Ahelegbey, Boston University ; Monica Billio, University of Venice ; Roberto Casarin, University of Venice
3:05 PM	Strictly Archimedean Copula with Complete Association for Multivariate Dependence Based on the Clayton Family — Kahadawala Cooray , Central Michigan University
3:20 PM	Factors Associated with Systemic Risk: A CoVaR Approach — Zhiruo Liu
3:35 PM	Pricing Variance Swap by Estimating Risk Neutral Density — Liyuan Jiang ; Keren Li, University of Illinois at Chicago ; Fangfang Wang, University of Illinois at Chicago ; Jie Yang, University of Illinois at Chicago

429 *	Tue, 8/2/2016, 2:00 PM - 3:50 PM	CC-W184d
Statistical Analysis of Air Pollution Data — Contributed Papers
Section on Statistics and the Environment , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Joshua French, University of Colorado Denver
2:05 PM	Spatial Prediction of Naturally Occurring Indoor Gamma Radiation Dose Rates in Great Britain — Mark Peter Little, National Cancer Institute ; Pavel Chernyavskiy, National Cancer Institute ; Gerald M. Kendall, University of Oxford ; Philip S. Rosenberg, National Cancer Institute ; Richard Wakeford, University of Manchester
2:20 PM	Bayesian Spatial Multivariate Receptor Modeling for Multisite Multipollutant Data — Eun Sug Park, Texas A&M Transportation Institute ; Inyoung Kim, Virginia Tech ; Shuman Tan, Texas A&M Transportation Institute ; Clifford Spiegelman, Texas A&M University
2:35 PM	The Positive Effects of Population-Based Preferential Sampling in Environmental Epidemiology — Joseph Antonelli, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health ; Matthew Cefalu, RAND Corporation ; Luke Bornn, Simon Fraser University
2:50 PM	Analysis of Methane Data Collected by Google Street View Vehicles — Zachary Weller ; Jennifer Hoeting , Colorado State University ; Adam Gaylord, Colorado State University ; Joe von Fischer, Colorado State University
3:05 PM	Dynamic PCA for Multiple Air Pollutants — Oleg Melnikov, Rice University ; Katherine B. Ensor, Rice University ; Loren Raun, Rice University
3:20 PM	A Comparison of Spatial Prediction Models for Traffic-Related Air Pollution Data — Zheng Zhu ; Roman Jandarov, University of Cincinnati
3:35 PM	Floor Discussion

443	Tue, 8/2/2016, 2:00 PM - 3:50 PM	CC-Hall F1 West
Contributed Poster Presentations: Section on Risk Analysis — Contributed Poster Presentations
Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Genevera Allen, Rice University
14:	An Approximation for a Collective Risk Model — Ranee Thiagarajah, Illinois State University
15:	An Exploratory Study on Customer Adherence from Customer Behavior Sequence Data — Mingfei Li, Bentley University
16:	The ABCs of Risk Score Calibration — Sitaram Vangala, University of California at Los Angeles Health System
17:	GARCH Modeling for Five Popular Commodities — Stephen Chan, University of Manchester
19:	Small Noise Asymptotics in High-Frequency Financial Econometrics — Daisuke Kurisu, University of Tokyo
20:	Application of Data Mining Techniques to Pesticide Risk Assessment — Ayona Chatterjee, California State University at East Bay ; Arjun Panda, California State University at East Bay ; Jacob Holmab, California State University at East Bay ; Eric Suess, California State University at East Bay
21:	A Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm to Allocate U.S. Regional Blood Transfers in Simulated Earthquakes — Arianna Simonetti, FDA/CBER ; Hussein Ezzeldin, FDA/CBER ; Richard Forshee, FDA/CBER
22:	Applying Statistics in Auto Insurance — Philip Wong, CSAA IG ; Lavinia Museteanu, CSAA IG

213604	Tue, 8/2/2016, 6:30 PM - 8:00 PM	H-Stevens Salon C 8
Section on Risk Analysis Mixer — Other Cmte/Business
Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Alexandra Kapatou, American University

467 * !	Wed, 8/3/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W175a
Using the Extraordinary Power of Statistics for Transportation Safety Research at the Federal Highway Administration — Invited Papers
Transportation Statistics Interest Group , Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security , Scientific and Public Affairs Advisory Committee , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Matthew J. Heaton, Brigham Young University
Chair(s): David Banks, Duke University
8:35 AM	The Naturalistic Driving Study and Statistical Modeling Challenges — Feng Guo, Virginia Tech
9:00 AM	Spatial Modeling of Highway Crash Risk — Matthew J. Heaton, Brigham Young University
9:25 AM	Causal Inference Methods in Traffic Safety Research — Fan Li, Duke University
9:50 AM	Discussant: Carol Tan, Federal Highway Administration
10:10 AM	Floor Discussion

493 *	Wed, 8/3/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W193a
Risk Prediction and Risk Assessment Models — Contributed Papers
Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Mark Burch, The Ohio State University
8:35 AM	Modeling Survival and Growth Outcomes in a Toxicology Study — Jing Zhang ; A. John Bailer, Miami University ; James T. Oris, Miami University ; Scott E. Belangerz, Procter & Gamble
8:50 AM	Bayesian Prospective Detection of Small-Area Health Anomalies Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence — Chawarat Rotejanaprasert, Medical University of South Carolina
9:05 AM	Augmented Estimation for T-Year Survival with Censored Regression Models — Yu Zheng, Harvard ; Tianxi Cai, Harvard
9:20 AM	Improvements in Estimation of Measures of Prediction Increment — Danielle Enserro ; Ralph D'Agostino, Boston University ; Michael Pencina, Duke University ; Martin G. Larson, Boston University
9:35 AM	Design and Analyses of Two-Phase Studies for Predicting Binary Outcomes — Xinglei Chai, University of Pennsylvania ; Jinbo Chen, University of Pennsylvania
9:50 AM	Asymptotic Distribution of Delta AUC, NRI, and IDI Based on U-Statistics Theory — Olga Demler, Harvard Medical School ; Michael Pencina, Duke University ; Ralph D'Agostino, Boston University
10:05 AM	Analyzing fatal accidents in aviation using extreme value theory — Kumer Das, Lamar University ; Asim Dey, The University of Texas at Dallas

504	Wed, 8/3/2016, 8:30 AM - 10:20 AM	CC-W184a
Risk, Prediction, and Financial Econometrics — Contributed Papers
Business and Economic Statistics Section , Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Lei Jin, Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi
8:35 AM	Confidence Intervals for Unknown Means of Both Skewed and Long-Range Dependent Populations — Kyungduk Ko, Boise State University
8:50 AM	Extracting Risk-Neutral Distributions Using CDS Spreads and Option Prices — Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Federal Reserve Board ; Sirio Aramonte, Federal Reserve Board ; Sam Rosen, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ; John Schindler, Federal Reserve Board
9:05 AM	Dynamic Modeling of Factor Risks in Multi-strategy Hedge Fund Investment Portfolios — Weiren Chang, JP Morgan
9:20 AM	Exchange Traded Funds with Variable Leverage — Valmira Hoxhaj, Oakland University ; Ravindra Khattree, Oakland University
9:35 AM	Asymptotic Expansion of One-Factor Merton Models with Non-Gaussian and Serially Correlated Innovations — Takayuki Shiohama, Tokyo University of Science
9:50 AM	Variable Selection for Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction: A Generalized Single-Index Approach — Shaobo Li, University of Cincinnati ; Yan Yu, University of Cincinnati
10:05 AM	Zero-Inflated Models vs. Hurdle Models in Modeling Auto Insurance Claims in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Nigeria — Mary Akinyemi, University of Lagos ; Bisola Adijat Rufai, University of Lagos

515 * !	Wed, 8/3/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W187b
Recent Advancements in Spatio-Temporal Infectious Disease Modeling — Invited Papers
WNAR , International Chinese Statistical Association , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Aaron T. Porter, Colorado School of Mines
Chair(s): Jacob J. Oleson, University of Iowa
10:35 AM	Approximate Bayesian Computation for Compartmental Epidemic Models: Methods and Software — Grant Donald Brown, University of Iowa ; Aaron T. Porter, Colorado School of Mines ; Jacob J. Oleson, University of Iowa
10:55 AM	Parameter Inference and Model Selection in Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamical Models — Jennifer Hoeting , Colorado State University ; Libo Sun, Janssen R&D ; Chihoon Lee, Stevens Institute of Technology
11:15 AM	Gaussian Process Emulator-Based Inference for Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Systems — Rob Deardon, University of Calgary ; Gyanendra Pokharel, University of Calgary
11:35 AM	A Robust SEIR Model for Epidemics on Unobserved Graphs — Aaron T. Porter, Colorado School of Mines ; Grant Donald Brown, University of Iowa
11:55 AM	Integrating Independent Spatio-Temporal Models to Assess Population Trends — John VanBuren, University of Iowa ; Jacob J. Oleson, University of Iowa
12:15 PM	Floor Discussion

538 * !	Wed, 8/3/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W186a
Methods for Risk Prediction — Contributed Papers
Biometrics Section , Biopharmaceutical Section , Section on Risk Analysis
Chair(s): Rebecca Scherzer, University of California at San Francisco
10:35 AM	Dynamic Scheduling of the Next Exam in Cancer Screening — Dongfeng Wu, University of Louisville
10:50 AM	Evaluating Probability Forecasts — Shulamith Gross, Baruch College
11:05 AM	Comparisons of Statistical Methods for Determining Gene Expression Signatures to Predict Prostate Cancer Response — Dirk Moore, Rutgers School of Public Health ; Qian Dong, Celgene
11:20 AM	Estimating HIV Relative Risk in India Using CAR Models — Kaushik Ghosh, University of Nevada, Las Vegas ; Chandrasekaran Kandhasamy, National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis
11:35 AM	A Latent-Variable Approach to Derive a Pediatric Cardiac Inotrope Score Associated with Congenital Heart Surgery — Mallikarjuna Rettiganti, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences ; Avishek Chakraborty, University of Arkansas ; Punkaj Gupta, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences
11:50 AM	Semiparametric Estimation and Inference for Partial AUC of Biomarkers Subject to Limit of Detection — Lixuan Yin, George Mason University ; Guoqing Diao, George Mason University ; Aiyi Liu, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
12:05 PM	Missing Data and Prediction Models — Sarah Fletcher, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine ; Jeffrey David Blume, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine

550	Wed, 8/3/2016, 10:30 AM - 12:20 PM	CC-W194b
Risk Estimation — Contributed Papers
Business and Economic Statistics Section , Section on Risk Analysis , Statistics in Business Schools Interest Group
Chair(s): Daniel McDonald, Indiana University
10:35 AM	What Is the Best Model to Predict Real Failure of Hedge Funds? — Jose Faias, Catolica Lisbon SBE ; Leila Amorim, UFBA
10:50 AM	Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Generalized Linear Models with Binary Response When Overdispersion Presents — Jin Xia, GE Global Research ; Radu Neagu, GE Global Research
11:05 AM	Assessing Value at Risk in Mortgage Credit — Robert Kevin Winkler, George Mason University ; James E. Gentle, George Mason University
11:20 AM	Cluster Analysis of Financial Institution Fraud: The Role of Civil Money Penalties — Sharon Pedersen
11:35 AM	Macroeconomic Factors and Banks' Operational Risk Losses: Is There Any Connection? — Vladimir Ladyzhets, Santander Bank/University of Connecticut
11:50 AM	Modeling Insurance Claims Using Skewed and Mixture Probability Distributions — Mohammad Aziz, University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire ; Aaron Leinwander, Security Health Plan
12:05 PM	Floor Discussion

597 *	Wed, 8/3/2016, 2:00 PM - 3:50 PM	CC-W185bc
Emerging Topics in Benefit-Risk Assessment in Clinical Development Decision Making — Topic Contributed Papers
Biopharmaceutical Section , Committee on Applied Statisticians , Section on Risk Analysis
Organizer(s): Weili He, Merck
Chair(s): Jonathan Norton, MedImmune
2:05 PM	Practical Considerations for Benefit Risk Assessment and Implementation: Vorapaxar TRA-2P TIMI 50 Case Study — Weili He, Merck
2:25 PM	Patient Preference in Benefit-Risk Analysis in Medical Device Trials — Xuefeng Li, FDA
2:45 PM	Benefit-Risk Assessment via Case Studies — George Quartey, Genentech ; Qi Jiang, Amgen ; Weili He, Merck
3:05 PM	Some Consideration on Endpoint Selection, Weighting Determination, and Uncertainty Evaluation in the Benefit-Risk Assessment in Pharmaceutical Drug Development — Haijun Ma ; Qi Jiang, Amgen
3:25 PM	Discussant: Martin Ho, FDA/CDRH
3:45 PM	Floor Discussion

JSM 2016 Online Program

Activity Details

ASA Meetings Department

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