463 – SPEED: Methodological Advances in Time Series: BandE Speed Session, Part 1
The Development of a Method for the Composite Coincident Indicator (CCI) for the United States
Chandra Putcha
California State University at Fullerton
Brian W. Sloboda
University of Phoenix
The purpose of this paper is to continue work on a composite coincident indicator (CCI) for the United States and by each state as covered in Putcha and Sloboda (2017, 2018). This research looks at the economic time series for the United States by examining behavior of the key time series and applying the peak-valley algorithm as proposed by Schneider (2011) before creating the CCI. The detection of peaks and valleys in time series has been a longstanding problem in economic time series. To identify the trends in the economic time series, we provide two approaches to determine the trend in the time series: the geometric approach and the statistical definition of peaks and valleys. These two approaches can detect the significant trends within economic time series. This preliminary research examines the proposed variables that could be included into an eventual CCI for the United States.