84 – Environmental Monitoring
Estimating Missing Observation of the Antarctic Ozone Hole
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Keywords: missing value estimation, SETAR model, forward-forecast, backward-forecast, forecasts-combining, ozone hole
Bu Hyoung Lee
Temple University
William W. S Wei
Temple University
The NASA has monitored the Antarctic ozone depletion referred to as the ozone hole, caused by manmade compounds, especially CFCs and BFCs, using satellite remote sensing instruments since the late 1970s. However, observations between December 1994 and June 1996 are missing because the NASA remote sensors were not in the observation orbit. We first construct nonlinear SETAR models for two sub-series from January 1983 to November 1994 and from July 1996 to December 2010. We then use the models to estimate the missing values using forward-forecasting, backward-forecasting, and the linear combination of forward-forecasts and backward forecasts.
