Conference Program Home
  My Program

All Times EDT

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 208 - SPEED: Bayesian Methods and Social Statistics Part 2
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2022 : 2:00 PM to 2:45 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract #323785
Title: Spatial Structure and Labor Market Integration Projections in Germany
Author(s): Monika Obersneider* and Petra Stein
Companies: University of Duisburg-Essen and University of Duisburg-Essen
Keywords: Dynamic Microsimulation; Regional Modeling; Labor Market Outcomes; Immigration; Regional Inequalities; Population Composition

There are considerable spatial differences in the proportion of migrant populations within Germany that affect individual labor market outcomes. Hence, these regional disparities combined with individual characteristics and contextual effects cannot be neglected when projecting the integration dynamics of migrants in the labor market. Moreover, Germany has lacked a microsimulation model for conducting dynamic microsimulations from a regional perspective. This shortcoming is resolved through the newly developed nationwide regionalized microsimulation model from the MikroSim project. We will present its application by analyzing possible future labor market outcomes of migrant populations in Germany. Instead of seeing integration dynamics in Germany as a single entity, we run different what-if scenarios, project income dynamics and unemployment risks of immigrants or the development of blue- and white-collar workers according to their regional embeddedness. This allows for investigating long-term integration dynamics while capturing individual, contextual and regional developments.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2022 program