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Activity Number: 152 - Statistical Methods for Data Privacy and Statistical Modeling of Social and Economic Factors
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract #322724
Title: Income and Inequality Projections in Germany
Author(s): Jana Emmenegger* and Monika Obersneider and Petra Stein
Companies: German Federal Statistical Office and University of Duisburg-Essen and University of Duisburg-Essen
Keywords: Dynamic Microsimulation; Income Estimation; Income Inequality; Regional Modeling; Gender Pay Gap; Migrant Pay Gap
Abstract:

Income is one of the leading indicators to measure individual opportunities, regional differences, and inequality in a society. Previous research has provided significant knowledge to explain gender- and migration-related inequalities. However, how the inequalities will develop in the future or under different conditions remains unclear. Statistical simulation methods are used in social sciences as analytical instruments to project future population developments. In particular, dynamic microsimulations allow to model individual, household, as well as regional aspects and analyze complex social dynamics under different what-if scenarios. This contribution aims to examine the potential dynamics in gender and migrant pay gaps across the regions in Germany. We simulate two scenarios: increased full-time employment of a) all women b) the female immigrant population. The first results show that women's increased labor market participation has a regionally diverging effect on the inequality dynamics.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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