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Activity Number:
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325
- Investigating COVID-19 and the Criminal Legal System, Policing, and Crime
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 9, 2022 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Social Statistics Section
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Abstract #322444
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Title:
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COVID Risk and Racial Disparities in Policing, Jail, and Low Wage, Essential Work: An SIR Simulation Study
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Author(s):
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Amelia M. Haviland* and Phillip Atiba Goff and Tracey Lloyd and Mikaela M Meyer
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Companies:
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Carnegie Mellon University and Yale University and CENTER FOR POLICING EQUITY and Carnegie Mellon University
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Keywords:
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Racial Disparities;
COVID-19;
Simulation
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Abstract:
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We sought to simulate COVID-19 spread in a large, synthetic U.S. city, focusing on three domains: (a) low-wage, essential work, (b) police-public contact, and (c) community return from jail and prison. We used a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to illustrate the high-level dynamics of the disease spread. We focus on 8 groups in a simulated metro area of 5 million people with group sizes and contact rates estimated from several national or large city data sets including calls for police service by LAPD and Baltimore PD, Bureau of Justice Statistics data on jail and prison populations and releases, Bureau of Labor Statistics data on counts and racial composition of the US workforce by detailed occupation categories, and American Community Survey Data. Accounting for reasonable variation across cities, we estimate that over an initial 40-day time span, policing and jail/prison release accounted for between 13 and 18 percent of new infections in most US metro areas. Essential, low-wage work accounted for an additional 50 to 56 percent.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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