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Activity Number: 422 - Crime
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #322157
Title: Technical Innovations and Solutions to Estimating Reported Crime in the U.S. Through the National NIBRS Estimation System
Author(s): Ian Thomas*
Companies: RTI International
Keywords: estimation; NIBRS; law enforcement; administrative data; technical solutions; crime statistics

On January 1, 2021, the FBI officially adopted the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) as the national standard for law enforcement (LE) crime reporting. At that time, about half of LE agencies were submitting crime data to NIBRS. This gap in coverage required that a new set of statistical procedures be developed, to generate national estimates of crime based on the reported data. Critical to the success of the new methods was establishing an estimation system that could contain all the components of this new estimation process.

To ensure the first set of official estimates, based on data from 2021, are produced smoothly, a prototype of the estimation system was developed and tested using 2020 data. The estimation system is a cloud-based pipeline that transforms the NIBRS input data, produces representative weights at the national and state levels, conducts imputation, and produces disaggregated population estimates. The result is a final database containing weighted estimates and a set of quality measures and metadata. A demonstration of the types of information available from the estimation system will be presented.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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