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Activity Number: 243 - Statistics in Sports and Beyond
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2021 : 10:00 AM to 11:50 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract #319011
Title: Determining an Enhanced Forecasting Model for Caribbean Premier League (CPL) T20 Cricket
Author(s): Rudrunath Singh* and Isaac Dialsingh
Companies: The University of the West Indies and The University of the West Indies
Keywords: Twenty20; Margin of Victory; Statistics Modelling; Team Rankings

Twenty20 (T20) cricket continues to capture the attention and imagination of cricket enthusiasts globally, with performance analysis pivotal in shaping successful tactics and strategies. Key variables such as the runs differential between the two teams at any given point in time during the second innings, allow us to gauge the closeness of the match. One particular area of interest, the margin of victory, is not as simple and standardized when compared to other sports like basketball, soccer and tennis. This paper focusses on building an enhanced forecasting model to project the number of runs that are expected to be scored in the second innings of T20 matches, whilst the matches are in progress, and using it to establish an acceptable margin of victory, which in turn, allows for a more efficient ranking of teams. Using data collected from CPL T20 matches, the model builds upon the work done by M. Asif and I. G. McHale, and introduces a different generalized non-linear forecasting model (GNLM) to the one previously proposed.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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