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Activity Number: 322 - Analyses in Ecology, Epidemiology, and Environmental Policy
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2021 : 3:30 PM to 5:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #318616
Title: Modeling Prescribed Fire Behavior Following Various Disturbance Regimes in a Mixed Hardwood-Pine Forest
Author(s): John A Craycroft* and Callie Jo Schweitzer
Companies: None currently and United States Forest Service
Keywords: mixed models; spatial correlation; temporal correlation; prescribed fire; variance heterogeneity; penalized regression
Abstract:

Prescribed fire serves multiple forest management goals, from helping shift to a more desirable species mix over time, to reducing fuel accumulation. Feedback loops exist in which fires alter existing fuel and stand composition, as well as future vegetation growth, and these in turn affect behavior and dynamics of future fires. Much is unknown about the character of these feedback loops. Likewise, there is much uncertainty regarding how to tailor prescribed fires for differing forest management goals. A long-term study ongoing at William B. Bankhead National Forest in northcentral Alabama since 2003 is attempting to shed light on these questions. In a 3x3 factorial design, 2 factors are being explored for their effects on fire dynamics and on vegetation responses. Forest thinning was done at 3 levels: none, light, and heavy. Prescribed burning also took 3 levels: none, infrequent, and frequent. This presentation specifically looks at the fire dynamics of each prescribed burn and whether previous burns have an effect on future burns. We present a model for the intensity of the fire that incorporates covariate data on weather, vegetation, fuel loadings, and the 9 treatment levels.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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