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Activity Number: 211 - Disease Prediction
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2021 : 1:30 PM to 3:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #318445
Title: A Modified Multi-Strain SIR Model for Emerging Viral Strains
Author(s): Miguel Fudolig* and Reka Howard
Companies: University of Nebraska-Lincoln and University of Nebraska - Lincoln
Keywords: infectious disease modeling; vaccination and immunization; compartmental systems; stochastic simulations

We study a novel multi-strain SIR epidemic model with selective immunity by vaccination. A newer strain is made to emerge in the population when a preexisting strain has reached equilibrium. We assume that this newer strain does not exhibit cross-immunity with the original strain, hence those who are vaccinated and recovered from the original strain become susceptible to the newer strain. We solved for four different equilibrium points and investigated the conditions for existence and local stability. The reproduction number was also determined for the epidemic model and found to be consistent with the local stability condition for the disease-free equilibrium. Stochastic simulations of the model were performed for the closed population case by making distributional assumptions to the transitions between the compartments in the epidemic model. The simulations were implemented using the R package odin.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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