Model Selection to Forecast the Trend of COVID-19 for the Counties Near Houston, Texas

• Activity Number: 439 - Topics in Marketing
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2021 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Korean International Statistical Society
• Author(s): YOONSUNG JUNG*
• Companies: Prairie View A&M University
• Keywords: COVID-19; Time Series; ARIMA; Holt-Winter Additive Model; TBAT

Abstract

After an outbreak from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is called COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic has had comprehensive consequences. This research project will explore 254 Texas counties’ COVID-19 data to provide a model to predict the future COVID-19 trend and unemployment, which is a major element in deciding socioeconomic status. Via a prediction model into a dataset for the daily cumulative test, daily cases, daily fatal case, and weekly unemployment data of Harris county and seven adjacent counties in Texas from March to July 2020, this study aims to provide the value and rationale behind the use and non-use of the data-driven prediction model in the State Health Service Department and State Workforce Commission.