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Abstract:
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Over the past year, American lumber prices have risen three-fold. This work takes a deep dive into lumber price data to understand why prices remain high, despite some recent economic metrics telling a story to the contrary. We use all available data and apply established statistical methods to investigate what factors have been most influential on the market, evaluate the consequences to industries such as residential construction and how these consequences may lead to market feedback, and build predictive models for lumber prices in the near future. We also investigate the recent uptick in the volatility of lumber prices and what factors influence it, as well as whether it is temporary or here for the long term.
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