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Activity Number: 59 - Invited E-Poster Session I
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 8, 2021 : 5:45 PM to 6:30 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #317638
Title: Mapping Infectious Disease Susceptibility Based on Point-Level Spatiotemporal Outbreak Data
Author(s): Murali Haran* and Xiaoxiao Li and Matthew Ferrari
Companies: Pennsylvania State University and Pennsylvania State University and Pennsylvania State University
Keywords: infectious disease; spatial dynamics; foot and mouth disease; measles; transmission kernel
Abstract:

In order to better design intervention strategies for an outbreak of an infectious disease it is crucial to characterize regional susceptibility. We describe a spatiotemporal model for disease dynamics that uses point-level space-time data on outbreaks of a disease to help identify regions that are vulnerable to that disease, and provide estimates of the transmission potential at any location. We apply our model to data on foot-mouth disease (FMD) in Turkey. FMD is a severe, highly contagious viral disease which causes illness in cloven-footed animals. We also apply our model to a well known dataset on measles outbreaks in England and Wales. We study our method via simulated data and also explore the impact of different levels of sampling effort on our conclusions.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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