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Abstract:
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In February 2020, SARS-CoV-2 had begun spreading within the United States. However, due to limited testing capacity, the extent of transmission was unknown. In collaboration with the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, we developed a model to consider how many infections might occur through April 2020 in a setting where testing was not widespread. We varied parameters such as the number of expected introductions, R0, and the proportion of transmission that occurs presymptomatically. Through an interactive online tool (rebeccakahn.shinyapps.io/COVID19), users could vary these key, but uncertain, parameters to examine their effects on the outbreak’s trajectory. This model was used by decision makers in planning their initial response to COVID-19. Our collaboration has evolved to meet new priorities as the epidemic has progressed, focusing on adjusting for reporting delays in real time (nowcasting) and developing metrics for monitoring the epidemic’s trajectory. This academic-public health partnership, which combines local public health expertise and data with the latest developments in infectious disease methodology, could serve as a model for outbreak response.
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