Online Program Home
  My Program

All Times EDT

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 182 - New Approaches in Statistical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2021 : 1:30 PM to 3:20 PM
Sponsor: Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute
Abstract #316641
Title: Spatial-Temporal Modeling of COVID-19 Mortality Risk in Toronto, Canada
Author(s): Cindy Feng*
Companies: Dalhousie University
Keywords: COVID-19; Spatial Correlation; Temporal Correlation; Spline ; Predictive Checking

In this talk, a spatial-temporal model for modeling georeferenced COVID -19 mortality data in Toronto, Canada will be presented. A range of individual-level and neighborhood-level factors, as well as spatial-temporal terms, are incorporated into the model. The non-linear and interactive effects of the neighborhood-level factors, i.e., population density and the average of income, are modeled as a two-dimensional spline smoother. Tensor product smoother is used for modeling the space-time interaction. By fitting this model, the spatial terms can provide insight into detecting high-risk areas not explained by the covariates. The predictive accuracy of the proposed model is evaluated based on in-sample and out-of-sample predictive checking, and the findings showed that the model has high predictive power for predicting mortality risk among positive COVID -19 cases in the studied population.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2021 program