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Activity Number: 37 - Advances in Statistical Climatology
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 8, 2021 : 3:30 PM to 5:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #316611
Title: Attribution of the 2020 Colorado Fire Season by Transformed-linear Time Series Models for Extremes
Author(s): Daniel Cooley* and Nehali Mhatre
Companies: Colorado State University and Colorado State University
Keywords: Extremes; Time Series; Wildfire

We fit a transformed-linear time series model to Fire Weather Index (FWI) data for a Colorado region which experienced the largest wildfires on record in the state. The transformed-linear model is designed to capture dependence in the upper tail, allowing us to make inference about the extreme behavior of the FWI. We find that the weather conditions seen in 2020 are about as twice as likely to occur in the current climate than in the climate of the mid-20th century.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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