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Activity Number:
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326
- Recent Developments in Probabilistic Record Linkage, Multiple Systems Estimation, and Entity Resolution
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 12, 2021 : 10:00 AM to 11:50 AM
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Sponsor:
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Survey Research Methods Section
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Abstract #316572
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Title:
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Multiple Systems Estimation for the Quantification of Modern Slavery: A Comparative Study Regarding the Accuracy of Current Methods
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Author(s):
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Olivier Binette* and Rebecca C. Steorts
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Companies:
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Duke University and Duke University
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Keywords:
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multiple systems estimation;
modern slavery ;
human trafficking
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Abstract:
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We are motivated by recent attempts at quantifying the extent of modern slavery and human trafficking using multiple systems estimation (MSE) methodology. Despite the broad range of MSE approaches available to practitioners, little guidance is provided regarding their underlying assumptions and their accuracy in applications. We provide a comparative analysis of MSE methods on both synthetic and real data based upon previously carried studies in the literature. Furthermore, we characterize the large sample bias of large classes of MSE estimators when underlying assumptions are not satisfied. This is used to identify potential sources of bias in MSE studies and to precisely quantify their effect on resulting estimates. Finally, we provide guidance based upon our work regarding how existing methods can and should be used in practice.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
