How Do We Know Climate Change Is Affecting Health, and What Might the Future Hold?

• Activity Number: 269 - Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Infectious Diseases
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2021 : 1:30 PM to 3:20 PM
• Sponsor: ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy
• Author(s): Kristie L Ebi*
• Companies: University of Washington
• Keywords: health; climate change; attribution

Abstract

Evidence-based risk management for the health risks of climate change needs robust evidence of the extent to which climate change is affecting human health and well-being. Formal statistical and process-based methods, subsumed under the term detection and attribution (D&A), were developed by climatologists to answer the question of whether and to what extent the likelihood and intensity of extreme events are changing above the background of natural climate variability (detection), and how much of that change could be attributed to human-induced climate change (attribution). Conducting health D&A studies is complex because there are many drivers of these health outcomes and because long health data series are often needed to detect any trends. Despite these constraints, health D&A studies are determining how much climate change is affecting the current burden of climate-sensitive illnesses and deaths. D&A can be used to document the causal chain from emissions of greenhouse gases to observed human health outcomes; this is important input into risk assessments that prioritize health system preparedness and response interventions; financial investments; and risk communication.