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Activity Number: 186 - Biomarker and Diagnostic Test Evaluation
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 4, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
Sponsor: Section on Medical Devices and Diagnostics
Abstract #309592
Title: Evaluation of Polytomous Diagnostic Tests
Author(s): Jeng Mah*
Companies: Beckman Coulter
Keywords: Polytomous diagnosis; Accuracy measurements; Cut-off points; Benefit-risk analysis; Optimization

Diagnostic tests with multinomial outcomes are often used in medical decision making. Examples include cancer type classification, disease staging, and severity assessment, just to name a few. Since errors may occur in any diagnostic process based on data, the accuracy of a polytomous diagnostic test is as important as that of a dichotomous one. However, current statistical methods are not well developed for the evaluation of diagnostic tests that result in more than a positive/negative result.

We extend the principle of dichotomous diagnostics to polytomous cases by defining accuracy measurements for a K-category diagnostic test as probability of test = i | true category = i, where i = 1,2, … K and discuss the interpretability of these measurements, including the impact from omitted information, i.e., where test ^= i | true category = i. We explore methods of determining the K – 1 cutoff points by standard classification methods and an ROC-like approach. We conclude that a benefit-risk based approach can be readily extended to the evaluation of polytomous diagnostic tests, allows the use of partially correct outcomes, and can be useful in optimizing cutoff points.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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