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Abstract:
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Why has U.S. and global productivity growth slowed? Some say the IT revolution is over, while others believe that the latest wave of digital transformation is merely taking its time. Still others think GDP is mismeasured (or irrelevant), causing productivity change to be misstated (or unmeasurable). Alongside these arguments are nontechnological forces such as secular stagnation and demographic/structural headwinds. This talk will assess these disparate forces and review in some depth (a) how digitization is affecting the U.S. economy and its measurement and (b) how the growth in importance of intangible assets (R&D, software, databases and AI, brand, firm-specific human capital and organizational capital) change the picture and prospects for investment and productivity growth in the United States and elsewhere.
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