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Activity Number: 565 - Time Series in Government and National Statistics
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, July 31, 2019 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #306458
Title: Using Daily Payment Processor Data to Determine Existence and Length of Retail Shopping Event Effects
Author(s): Rebecca Hutchinson* and Nicole Czaplicki
Companies: US Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
Keywords: seasonal adjustement; holiday effects; retail

Super Bowl Sunday is a major retail shopping event that can lead shoppers to increase their spending. The Super Bowl is played annually and has consistently been held on the first Sunday in February since 2004. This means that the Super Bowl’s impact—if one exists—can differentially affect January and February retail sales depending on its date in a particular year, meeting the definition of a moving holiday for seasonal adjustment purposes. Identifying if these effects actually exist and the length of their impact is somewhat hard to do with monthly retail survey data. This paper makes use of daily aggregated payment processor data and modeling to test for Super Bowl effects in various types of retail business (e.g., grocery, electronics, clothing, etc.) and attempts to identify the length of the effects for each type of business (e.g. how many days before and after the holiday itself).

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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