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Activity Number: 463 - SPEED: Methodological Advances in Time Series: BandE Speed Session, Part 1
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, July 31, 2019 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract #305046 Presentation
Title: Application of Linear and Nonlinear Models into Trend Analysis of U.S. Cotton Export (1996-2017)
Author(s): Zahra Saki* and Marguerite Moore and Lori H. Rothenberg
Companies: NC State University and NC State University and North Carolina State Un.
Keywords: Trend analysis; Linear models; Non-linear model; Textiles and Apparel; Comparative Advantage; Cotton
Abstract:

Cotton fiber is the largest source of U.S. textile and apparel export advantage. Rises and falls in cotton export advantage over the examination period (1996-2017) embolden research into past trend analysis of cotton fiber. UN-COMTRADE database is used to extract export values of products including HS5201, Cotton; not carded or combed, to calculate the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index. Simple linear regression (SLR), modified SLR following outlier removal and a non-linear model (i.e., cyclical) are used to fit the data. A cyclical model suggesting a repeated period of seven years best describes variation of U.S. cotton export competitiveness.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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