Assessing Data Contribution for Estimation of HIV Epidemics

• Activity Number: 647 - Statistical Advances in Population Research in the Developing World
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 1, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
• Author(s): Le Bao* and Xiaoyue Niu and Jacob Parsons
• Companies: Pennsylvania State University and Penn State University and Penn State University
• Keywords: HIV; Value of Information; Bayesian

Abstract

Ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic is a goal born from over 30 years of devastation, struggle, and loss, and contains within it hope and promise for those affected. We aim to provide accurate estimation and projection of HIV epidemics at both national and local levels. Those estimates would help countries efficiently allocate millions of dollars and save thousands of lives.

Data availability for monitoring epidemic trends is increasing. It is important to understand their contributions to the estimation of epidemics. We develop new value of information methods to apply to the problems of outlier detection and influence analysis. The proposed method has a distinct advantage in flexibility and interpretability when compared to existing methods. HIV prevalence in Lesotho and is used to illustrate the use of a value of information approach to influence analysis.