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Activity Number: 648 - Statistical Challenges in the Analysis of EHR Data
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 2, 2018 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Health Policy Statistics Section
Abstract #326542 Presentation
Title: Risk Prediction Using Longitudinal Predictors: An Application to Electronic Health Records Data
Author(s): Benjamin A Goldstein* and Michael Pencina and Gina-Maria Pomann and Wolfgang Winkelmayer
Companies: Duke University and Duke University and Duke University and Baylor University
Keywords: Electronic Health Rcords; Longitudinal Data; Joint Models; Functional Data Analysis; Risk Prediction

One of the key advantages of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data is that they contain data on many individuals collected over time. This allows one to incorporate more clinical information into a risk model. However, traditional methods for developing risk models are not well suited to these irregularly collected clinical covariates. In this talk, we compare a range of approaches for using longitudinal predictors in a clinical risk model. Using data from an EHR for patients undergoing hemodialysis, we incorporate five different clinical predictors into a risk model for patient mortality. We consider different approaches for treating the repeated measurements including use of summary statistics, machine learning methods, functional data analysis, and joint models. We follow up our empirical findings with a simulation study. Overall, our results suggest that simple approaches perform just as well, if not better, than more complex analytic approaches. These results have important implication for development of risk prediction models with EHRs.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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