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Activity Number: 159 - SPEED: Sports and Business
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 31, 2017 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract #324894 View Presentation
Title: Finding the Edge in Baccarat's Dragon and Panda Side Bets
Author(s): Robert Hannum* and Teresa Dalton
Companies: University of Denver and University of California, Irvine
Keywords: baccarat ; card counting

EZ Baccarat is a variant of traditional casino baccarat in which the usual 5% commission charged on winning Banker bets is eliminated and winning three-card Banker totals of seven are treated as a push. In addition to the usual Banker, Player, and Tie bets, EZ Baccarat offers two side bets called the Dragon 7 and the Panda 8. The former is a bet that the Banker's three-card total of seven beats the Player's total and carries a 7.6% house edge; the latter is a bet that the Player wins with a three-card total of eight and carries a 10.2% edge. Card counting has proven to be effective against these two side bets, one system giving the advantage player an 8.2% edge on the Dragon and another offering a 6.5% edge on the Panda. Using large scale simulations, this paper examines the effects on these counting systems of decreasing penetration (i.e., cutting off more than the usual number of cards) and increasing the number of decks. It is shown that both modifications are deleterious to the effectiveness of the systems, and if penetration is small enough and/or the number of decks used is great enough, for all practical purposes, counting is rendered ineffective.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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