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Activity Number:
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241
- Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security CPapers 1
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 31, 2017 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
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Abstract #323489
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View Presentation
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Title:
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Prediction Uncertainty for Autocorrelated Lognormal Data with Random Effects
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Author(s):
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Matthew Avery*
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Companies:
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Keywords:
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Prediction ;
Interval Estimates ;
Defense
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Abstract:
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A common use case in operational testing is estimating system performance across future operating conditions. When test data is generated through complex processes, it can become difficult to generate an estimate of uncertainty that is based on sound statistical theory yet remains intuitive to understand. The motivating data come from radar tracks of aircraft. Track accuracy is correlated both within each flight generally and from one second to the next. This presentation discusses multiple approaches for uncertainty quantification for this challenging use case.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
