JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304239

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 109
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #304239
Title: Time Series Modeling of Daily Accumulated Degradation Due to Outdoor Weathering
Author(s): Victor Chan*+ and William Q. Meeker
Companies: Western Washington University and Iowa State University
Address: 214 Bond Hall, Bellingham, WA, 98225, United States
Keywords: time series model ; degradation ; reliability
Abstract:

Accurate prediction of the service life of organic coating materials exposed to outdoor weathering is of great interest to the paints and coatings industry. One approach to provide such predictions is by using a time-series model capable of estimating the material degradation over a period of time. In this work, we propose such a time-series model based on the daily accumulated degradation data. Such data, which typically exhibit sinusoidal periodic behavior, can be obtained by direct field measurements or through the synthesis of the physical/chemical model of the material and the weather data. The modeling technique involves transformation and smoothing of the data. The time-series model can then be used, through simulation, to estimate reliability metrics such as the probability of failure for a given amount of service time and the failure time distribution. We describe the model-fitting procedure using the degradation data of a solar reflector material. We also present a bootstrap-based method to construct approximate confidence intervals for reliability quantities.

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Revised March 2005