JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303451

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	393
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #303451
Title:	Research on Errors Associated with Period Reporters in Retail Trade Estimates
Author(s):	Kelly Dixon*+
Companies:	U.S. Census Bureau
Address:	601 Carrol Avenue, Laurel, MD, 20707,
Keywords:	Period reporters ; Measurement error
Abstract:	The U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Retail and Food Service survey estimates sales on a calendar month basis. However, some "period reporters" report sales covering either a 4-week or 5-week period that rarely coincides with the exact beginning and ending dates of the calendar month. These period reports are adjusted to a calendar month basis using trading day weights computed as part of the seasonal adjustment process. This research examines whether the current methodology adequately accounts for the increased holiday sales that occur in November and December. During these months, survey analysts attempt to recontact large period reporters to convert their original period report to a calendar basis. The companies with both a period and calendar report are used in this research to estimate the effects of unadjusted period reports, the current adjustment method, and a simple adjustment based on the number of days contained in the period. The purpose is to measure the error caused by adjusting the period reports and discuss ways to improve measurement of the error.

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