JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302961

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 109
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #302961
Title: Estimation Error Comparisons of Failure Distribution for Accelerated Degradation Tests
Author(s): Shuen-Lin Jeng*+
Companies: Tunghai University
Address: No 181 Sec 3 Taichungkan road, Taichung, 407, Taiwan
Keywords: accelerated degradation test ; confidence interval ; estimation errors ; failure distribution
Abstract:

When the degradation measurements are closely related to the failure mechanism and the accelerated relationship is modeled appropriately, accelerated degradation data could provide information of failure distribution for units in the normal usage condition. Under the nonlinear degradation mixed model (several parameters of the model are random), the failure distribution is hard to be calculated exactly and is usually evaluated with numerical methods. In this talk, we will compare the estimation errors of failure distribution from four methods by giving confidence intervals. The methods considered are parametric nonlinear mixed effect, "pseudo failure times," traditional accelerated life test, and nonparametric nonlinear random effect. A set of data from integrated circuit power drop is used to demonstrate the estimation results and confidence intervals. We also conduct a simulation to compare the finite sample properties of these methods.

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Revised March 2005