JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #302482

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	175
Type:	Invited
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics and Marketing
Abstract - #302482
Title:	Simple Models for Customer-Base Analysis
Author(s):	Bruce Hardie*+ and Peter Fader
Companies:	London Business School and University of Pennsylvania
Address:	Sussex Place, London, NW1 4SA, United Kingdom
Keywords:	customer lifetime value ; customer base analysis ; probability model
Abstract:	Customer-base analysis seeks to use the information in a firm's transaction databases to address such issues as identifying which customers are most likely to be active (or inactive) and predicting the future purchasing behaviors of existing customers. While a number of statistical models have been developed to undertake such analyses, the "costs" of the required modeling infrastructure have served as a barrier to widespread implementation. As a means of facilitating implementation, this paper recommends the use of a "simple" model: one that makes use of carefully defined data summaries and that can be built and implemented using readily available software (e.g., Excel). We develop this idea in the customer-base analysis setting, outlining a set of "simple" probability models for different business settings and explore, in depth, a model for "noncontractual" settings where transactions are tracked in discrete time.

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