JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303776

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 327
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and Marketing
Abstract - #303776
Title: Application of the Poisson Race Model to Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
Author(s): Shiling Ruan*+ and Steven N. MacEachern and Angela Dean
Companies: The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University
Address: 1573 Lafayette Drive, Columbus, OH, 43220, United States
Keywords: Poisson race model ; Conjoint analysis ; Choice probabilities ; IIA assumptions ; Monotonicity
Abstract:

Conjoint analysis is commonly used to measure the consumer's preferences among multiattribute alternatives. Many methods have been used to uncover the partworths of the attributes that define the alternatives, but few make use of the parallel counter models employed for recognition processes. The Poisson race model is a parallel counter model that gives rise to a joint model for choice probabilities and response time among alternatives. Each alternative is viewed as an independent counter. As the evidence in favor of each alternative is accumulated, the counter that first reaches a threshold value determines the winning choice. We apply the Poisson race model in the context of conjoint analysis. First, we derive expressions for choice probability and study their properties as a function of the model parameters. We establish certain monotonicity properties for the choice probabilities. Then, we investigate the effect of multiple choices on the choice probabilities, noting the violation of the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption (IIA assumptions) and describing systematic changes to conditional choice probabilities as more alternatives are allowed.

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Revised March 2005