JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #302861

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	22
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics and Marketing
Abstract - #302861
Title:	Issues in Modeling Retention within and across Cohorts
Author(s):	Eric Bradlow*+ and Peter Fader and David Schweidel
Companies:	The Wharton School and University of Pennsylvania and The Wharton School
Address:	3730 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19003, United States
Keywords:	Retention ; Hazard Model
Abstract:	In assessing retention, many firms are highly reliant on simple rules of thumb such as "3% of the customers leave every month." But these measures are not necessarily accurate and rarely are tested in a systematic manner. For any given service, attrition propensities may vary dramatically across customers and over time, but most firms are unable to capture and describe these differences. Furthermore, for a multiservice firm (such as a financial institution or a telecommunications provider), these dynamics may vary from one service to another. However, firms lack the "language" to properly compare these patterns across the portfolio of services they offer. This study carefully considers a number of factors and methodological components that may underlie customer retention patterns. Specifically, we develop a model that takes into account duration dependence, promotional effects (incorporated via the proportional hazards approach), customer heterogeneity, cross-cohort effects, and calendar-time effects (e.g., seasonality).

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