JSM 2004 Online Program

Abstract #301906

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Activity Number:	410
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #301906
Title:	Models for Third-down Efficiency in the NFL
Author(s):	Christopher J. Rigdon*+ and Steven E. Rigdon
Companies:	Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville and Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville
Address:	Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, Edwardsville, IL, 62026,
Keywords:	logistic regression ; third-down conversion
Abstract:	We consider a logistic regression model for the probability of making a first down on a third-down play. The predictor variable is the yards to go for the first down. A regression analysis is performed for each NFL team's offense. We also consider the same model for each team's defense; that is, we model the probability that an opponent converts a third-down play. Finally, we consider a combined model for all 32 NFL teams where the probability of third down conversion depends on both the offense and the defense.

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