JSM 2004 Online Program

Abstract #301890

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Activity Number:	410
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #301890
Title:	The Winning Probability and A Priori Relative Ranking in the Game of Soccer
Author(s):	Alfred A. Akinsete*+ and Nicholas J. Wintz
Companies:	Marshall University and Marshall University
Address:	Dept. of Mathematics, Huntington, WV, 25755-2560,
Keywords:	soccer ; probability ; ranking ; English FA Premier League ; home advantage ; game
Abstract:	Soccer League started in England in 1888 with 12 teams, and has grown to different league divisions with the FA Premier League (FAPLE) occupying the highest echelon. FAPLE currently consists of 20 teams, forming the set of the strongest teams in the entire league formation. The teams play against one another, juxtaposing locations at home and away, resulting in 380 games throughout the season. There are immense contributions in literature on the statistical analyses of data arising from soccer league tournaments. Of significant contribution is the influence of home advantage as a contributing factor to the performance for teams when playing on their home grounds. We are interested in the statistical analysis of the 1993-2003 FAPLE results. We investigate the significance of the distance between any pair of teams, as ranked on the league table prior to their encounter. The estimated winning probabilities of the teams are obtained, and are used in the final ranking and predicting the outcomes of the league results in 2003/2004 season. The results are intended to form the basis for further investigation of some stochastic modeling.

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