JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300355

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Activity Number: 430
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: General Methodology
Abstract - #300355
Title: Modeling College Application and Matriculation Likelihood Using Logistic Regression Scoring
Author(s): Douglas M. Andrews*+
Companies: Wittenberg University
Address: Dept. of Math and Comp. Science, Springfield, OH, 45501,
Keywords: college admissions ; logistic regression ; modeling ; scoring systems
Abstract:

To help a small-college admissions staff focus its energies more efficiently, a scoring system was developed to use all available information on prospective high school students to predict which prospects are more likely to apply and to matriculate. Variable selection and weights were determined through a mixture of logistic regression and ad hoc analysis, guided by staff intuition and experience. Model factors include demographic and geographic variables, measures of academic ability, and vocational and personal interests. The resulting system predicts application propensity quite sensitively, but is much less successful at predicting matriculation.

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Revised March 2004