JSM 2003 Online Program

Abstract #301878

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Activity Number:	411
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #301878
Title:	Is Salt Lake City's Ice the Fastest on Earth?: A Statistical Investigation
Author(s):	C. Shane Reese*+
Companies:	Brigham Young University
Address:	230 TMCB, Provo, UT, 84602,
Keywords:	hierarchical models ; sports ; performance models
Abstract:	We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the finishing times for every major speed skating event since 1924. Our hierarchical specification allows for a unique ability for each skater as well as unique probabilities for each skater of falling and not finishing, finishing in "expected time," and finishing "longer than expected." This mixture modeling allows estimation of the speed of particular skating venues and we answer the question of whether the 2002 Olympic ice is, indeed, the fastest ever.

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