Abstract #300977

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300977
Activity Number: 51
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2003 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #300977
Title: Predictive Ability of Player Statistics for Salaries in the Four Major League Sports
Author(s): Michael F. Schneider*+ and Richard E. Auer
Companies: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Loyola College in Maryland
Address: 530A Alleghany Ave., Towson, MD, 21204-4232,
Keywords: player salaries ; multiple linear regression ; ANOVA ; Levene's Test ; Bartlett's Test ; Hartley's Test
Abstract:

With the recent mushrooming of major league sports into national big business, player salaries have skyrocketed. Many fans question how athletic ability and performance in each of the four major American team sports (NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB) relate to salary. From the economic viewpoint of the solvency of team franchises, this question has even more relevance. Given that player performance is likely best quantified from the athlete's collection of statistics, we consider linear regression models that predict athlete salary based on the available statistics in each of the four sports. Ultimately, we learn in which of the sports do player statistics best explain their salaries. Focusing on the difference between actual salaries and the model's predicted salaries, four different statistical approaches are employed. The ability to predict salaries in each of the sports is compared using ANOVA along with Levene's, Bartlett's, and Hartley's tests for equal variances. The results from the four approaches are also compared.


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