Abstract #300954

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300954
Activity Number: 411
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #300954
Title: Power Ratings for NCAA Division II Football
Author(s): Daniel J. Mundfrom*+ and Robert L. Heiny and Steven Hoff
Companies: University of Northern Colorado and University of Northern Colorado and University of Northern Colorado
Address: Dept. of Applied Stat. & Research Methods, Greeley, CO, 80639-0001,
Keywords: NCAA football ; power ratings ; Division II
Abstract:

Although many entities regularly rate D-1 football teams, there are no comprehensive rankings of D-II teams. Among the reasons for these divisional differences are a generally lower level of nationwide interest in lower division teams and fewer interregional games played at the D-II level resulting in fewer head-to-head matchups to use in ranking. This research examined statistical data on all NCAA football games involving D-II teams over a two-year period for the purpose of developing a system for determining their relative strengths. A variety of analyses were performed, including factor analyses, cluster analyses, discriminant analyses, and regressions in an attempt to develop a rating procedure. In the end, power ratings are based on won-lost percentage, margin of victory, strength of schedule, and quality wins, using a two-stage process. Results are given for the 2001 and 2002 seasons. Also, 2002 ratings are also presented for D-1A abd D-1AA using the same variables and methodology.

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