Abstract #300434

This is the preliminary program for the 2003 Joint Statistical Meetings in San Francisco, California. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 2-5, 2003); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

Back to main JSM 2003 Program page
JSM 2003 Abstract #300434
Activity Number: 149
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #300434
Title: Adaptive Tournament Design: Separating the Best from the Rest
Author(s): Mark Glickman*+ and Shane T. Jensen
Companies: Boston University and Harvard University
Address: Edith Nourse Rogers Mem Hosp (152), 70, Bedford, MA, 01730,
Keywords: Bayesian optimal design ; Kullback-Leibler divergence ; Bradley-Terry model ; paired comparisons ; tournaments
Abstract:

Typical paired comparison experimental designs do not allow for the incorporation of prior information. This is particularly relevant for the design of tournament schedules for players of games and sports, which often use ad hoc algorithms. The problem of pairing players can be formalized as a Bayesian optimal design. Assuming a linear paired comparison model for outcomes, we develop a pairing method that maximizes the gain in Kullback-Leibler information from the prior to the posterior distribution. The optimal pairing is determined using a combinatorial optimization method commonly applied in graph-theoretic contexts. We discuss the properties of our optimal pairing criterion, and demonstrate our method as an adaptive procedure for pairing players round by round. We compare the performance of our method on simulated data against a variation of a system that is currently in use in tournament chess.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2003 program

JSM 2003 For information, contact meetings@amstat.org or phone (703) 684-1221. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2003