Online Program

Methods of Developing and Validating a Predictive Model (302823)

Keywords: Model selection, model validation, predictive model

Developing a predictive model is usually seen in clinical research, and performing validation of a predictive model plays an essential role in ensuring the combination of factors included in a model will have great predictive ability. This presentation will use the data from an emergency department (ED) to predict the probability of admission to hospital for cancer patients. The ultimate goal is to use key elements that can capture patients clinical characteristics with the need for hospital admission so the ED length of stay can be reduced. The potential factors will include the chief complaint, age, emergency severity index, vital signs taken from triage, and the results from lab tests. We first investigate whether the chief complaint and other measurements taken from triage only will accurately predict if a patient will be admitted to the hospital and evaluate if adding the results from lab test would improve prediction. The results from different model development techniques will be reported. Each will be internally validated by the bootstrapping method, and the performance of the prediction from the validation also will be presented and compared.