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Activity Number: 170
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract #321499 View Presentation
Title: Classroom Investigations of Recent Research Concerning the Gamblers' Fallacy
Author(s): Kevin Ross*
Companies: Cal Poly
Keywords: probability ; hot hand fallacy ; gamblers fallacy ; cognitive bias

Statistics courses regularly caution against belief in the "gambler's fallacy" or the "hot hand fallacy". For years there has been little to no statistical evidence that such phenomena exist (hence the "fallacy"). However, recent research (Miller and Sanjurjo, 2014, 2015) suggests that previous analyses of such phenomena have been subject to a bias, and after correcting for this bias, there is in fact evidence that the effects are real. In this talk, we present results of classroom investigations relating to recent research on conditional dependence of outcomes in sequential data on streaks of past outcomes. We also discuss implications for coverage of the gamblers' (or hot hand) fallacy in statistical literacy courses.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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