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Abstract:
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When applying capture-recapture analysis methods, estimates of detection probability, and hence abundance estimates, can be biased if individuals of a population are not correctly identified (Creel, 2003). My research, motivated by the 2010 and 2011 surveys of Western Arctic bowhead whales conducted off the shores of Barrow, Alaska, addresses the complex scenario where an individual may be mistaken as another individual from that population, thus creating erroneous recaptures.
The method I propose develops an explicit model for match errors and uses MCMC methods to estimate model parameters. Implementation of this approach must overcome significant hurdles dealing with the enormous number and complexity of potential catch history configurations when matches are uncertain. The performance of this approach is evaluated using a large set of Monte Carlo simulation tests. Results of these test vary from good performance to weak performance, depending on factors including detection probability, number of sightings, and error rates.
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