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Activity Number: 486
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2016 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract #319211
Title: Phase as Lag: Synthetic Lag Models for Risk Estimation in Environmental Health
Author(s): Wesley S. Burr* and Glen Takahara
Companies: Health Canada and Queen's University
Keywords: risk models ; environmental epidemiology ; distributed lag ; time series ; spectrum estimation ; transfer functions
Abstract:

Numerous statistical studies from the field of environmental epidemiology have reported associations between short-term air pollution (e.g., PM2.5, NO2, etc.) exposure and population health effects, including mortality. Such risk models typically examine lagged risk through distributed-lag models in acknowledgement of the understanding that exposure often manifests in population health over time, rather than instantaneously. Through use of multitaper method-derived time series tools, we explore a new structural approach to the problem of lagged manifestation of air pollution exposure, which we have named _synthetic lag_. Our new method solves several problems which exist for previously developed methods, while retaining a similar philosophical approach and interpretation. We demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the new approach by comparing our results to those of classic models, using data from the National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) database.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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