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Activity Number: 671
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 4, 2016 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract #318438
Title: Inference for Multi-Model Ensembles: An Application in Glaciology
Author(s): Derek Bingham* and Ofir Harari and Gwenn Flowers
Companies: Simon Fraser University and Simon Fraser University and Simon Fraser University
Keywords: Computer experiment ; Gaussian process ; Uncertainty quantification
Abstract:

Computational models are frequently used to explore physical systems. Often, there are several computer models (or simulators) available and also a limited number of observations from the physical system. The aim is then to combine the simulators' output and field data to build better a predictive model of the system of interest and also estimate parameters that govern the system. Here, new methodology is proposed for combining multi-model ensembles of outputs and field observations to make predictions for the system with uncertainty. For the proposed approach, we do not choose a "best" model, but instead use a spatially varying convex combination of simulators. The methodology is motivated by an application in glaciology.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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