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Abstract:
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Earth system models are valuable tools for understanding how Earth's climate system is changing, yet they are inherently uncertain. Some key sources of uncertainty include structural differences between models, uncertainty in the initial conditions (internal variability), and limitations in the parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes. Here we will discuss recent efforts seeking to identify and quantify climate uncertainties that are relevant to decision makers and users of climate model information. We will highlight results from multi-model ensembles sampling structural and parametric uncertainties (e.g. CMIP5) and single-model ensembles sampling the internal (or natural) variability within the coupled system. We will discuss applications of these methods for model evaluation, uncertainty quantification, integrated assessment, and regional impacts analysis.
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