This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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300
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 3, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economic Statistics Section
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Abstract - #307608 |
Title:
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Improving the Preliminary Values of the Chained CPI-U
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Author(s):
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John Shearer Greenlees*+
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Companies:
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Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Address:
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2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
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Keywords:
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CPI ;
consumer ;
price ;
index ;
prediction ;
CES
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Abstract:
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This paper employs a constant-elasticity of substitution (CES) index formula to improve the accuracy of the preliminary values of the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U). Using the CES behavioral model, I present estimates of the overall extent of consumer response to relative price changes exhibited in Consumer Expenditure Survey data for 1999-2008. The associated parameter estimates are then used to develop CES forecasts of the final C-CPI-U index values. Simulations demonstrate that use of the CES approach over the last several years would have resulted in smaller index revisions between the preliminary and final C-CPI-U releases. Looking to the future, CES-based preliminary estimates could increase the usefulness of the C-CPI-U to government programs and other users.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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