This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 300
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 3, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract - #307608
Title: Improving the Preliminary Values of the Chained CPI-U
Author(s): John Shearer Greenlees*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: CPI ; consumer ; price ; index ; prediction ; CES
Abstract:

This paper employs a constant-elasticity of substitution (CES) index formula to improve the accuracy of the preliminary values of the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U). Using the CES behavioral model, I present estimates of the overall extent of consumer response to relative price changes exhibited in Consumer Expenditure Survey data for 1999-2008. The associated parameter estimates are then used to develop CES forecasts of the final C-CPI-U index values. Simulations demonstrate that use of the CES approach over the last several years would have resulted in smaller index revisions between the preliminary and final C-CPI-U releases. Looking to the future, CES-based preliminary estimates could increase the usefulness of the C-CPI-U to government programs and other users.


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