This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 571
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #307556
Title: Performance Measures for Survival Prediction Models: An Overview
Author(s): Linda M. Peelen*+ and Nina P. Paynter and Karel G.M. Moons and Nancy Cook
Companies: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care UMC Utrecht and Brigham and Women's Hospital and Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care UMC Utrecht and Brigham and Women's Hospital
Address: Mail stop Str 6.131, Utrecht, 3508GA, The Netherlands
Keywords: prediction ; survival ; time-to-event data ; evaluation ; performance measures
Abstract:

Survival prediction models based on time-to-event data are frequently used in medicine. In comparison with prediction models for binary outcomes, several additional issues arise, e.g., how to take into account censoring, or how to express performance of a predictor at different time points and over different prediction horizons. Over the past decade various performance measures have been developed addressing one or more of these issues, for different phases of prediction modeling (development, validation, comparison, updating). This talk will provide an overview of the different approaches. Data from the Women's Health Study and the Reynolds Risk Score prediction model will be used as an example to demonstrate measures for explained variance, loss function, discrimination, and calibration, focusing on the phase of model development.


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