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Activity Number: 82 - Climate and Meteorology
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 30, 2017 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #322605 View Presentation
Title: Probing the Association Between the Magnetic Dip Poles and Climate Change Using Indicator Variable Regression
Author(s): Lewis Shoemaker*
Companies: Millersville University of Pennsylvania
Keywords: magnetic poles ; global warming ; climate change ; cosmic radiation
Abstract:

This paper investigates the connection between the location of the earth's magnetic dip poles and average global temperatures. Through indicator variable regression analysis, the model is showing a correlation of .976 between the location of the magnetic poles and deviation in average annual global temperature. Further analysis suggests that this connection may not be coincidental but in fact may be causal. The model is even accurately predicting monthly deviation (correlation of .974) five months after the location of the dip pole is determined. One possible explanation for this phenomenon is the entrance of cosmic particles through the cusps of the magnetosphere at the poles as they move toward more climate sensitive regions such as the ice cap at the geographic North Pole. Interestingly, analyses show that while CO2 levels have been increasing and the strength of the magnetic field has been decreasing over the past 100 or so years, they do not seem to add any additional significant information for predicting global temperatures beyond the location of the dip poles.


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